Decision lessons
- Lessons recorded: 0, GBP 0 of shortfall.
- Explained by events: 0.
Executive Intelligence · Decision Intelligence and Simulation
Decision Outcome Learning
After a decision, records the expected outcome and later the actual outcome, measured from verified sources.
Demonstration: Pinecrest Foods plc (fictional) · Food manufacturing. Fictional data and a scripted answer.
The situation
- Organisation
- Pinecrest Foods plc (fictional)
- Who is asking
- Chief executive
- Industry
- Food manufacturing
- What happened
- The executive committee wants to learn from the last year's major decisions by checking what was expected against what happened.
The question asked
How did last year's major decisions actually turn out against what we expected, and what should we learn?
What it reads, and who can see the result
- Decision log registerDecisions with the expected outcome at the time.
- Outcome data exportWhat actually happened.
- Reads
- The decision log and measured outcomes.
- Does not read
- Private notes of the discussions.
- Permission
- Chief of staff access to the log.
- Who sees it
- The CEO and the executive committee.
Try it
Review each flagged record: confirm it or dismiss it. The totals and the answer below follow your decisions.
| Decision | Expected | Actual | Shortfall vs expected (GBP) | Finding | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open second bakery line | Output +20% | +21% | 0 | Matched | None needed |
| Switch flour supplier | Save 400,000 | Saved 410,000 | 0 | Matched | None needed |
| Launch plant-based range | Sales 3.0 million | Sales 1.8 million | 1,200,000 | Sales 40% below the expectation in the plan | |
| Automate packing line | Save 900,000 | Saved 450,000 | 450,000 | Half the expected saving; delayed commissioning | |
| Close the regional depot | Save 300,000 | Saved 120,000 | 180,000 | Hidden transport costs not in the case | |
| Raise prices 3% | Margin +1.1 pts | Margin +1.0 pts | 0 | Matched | None needed |
- Flagged
- 3 of 6 · GBP 1,830,000
- Record as a lesson
- 0 · GBP 0
- Explained by events
- 0 · GBP 0
- Undecided
- 3 · GBP 1,830,000
The answer
Simulated answer. Written for this fictional case, not produced by a live model. Only the figures in it are computed, from what you decided above.
3 of 6 decisions fell short of expectation, by GBP 1,830,000 in all.
Most decisions delivered what was expected; three did not [S1][S2]. A shortfall is not always a bad decision: a delayed commissioning date is an execution problem, a missed sales forecast a judgement problem, and hidden transport costs a business-case problem.
You have recorded 0 as lessons (GBP 0 of shortfall) and 0 as explained by events (GBP 0); 3 are undecided. The learning is in the sort of mistake, not the size of it.
Relies on: S1 · Decision log, last yearS2 · Measured outcomes
Review and approval
The chief executive decides. Approving records the lessons in the decision log for use in future business cases. It does not assign blame or change any decision.
Not ready to approve. 3 flagged decisions are still undecided. Confirm or dismiss each one first.
In the product this is a different person with the right permission. Here you play that role to see the rule.
What it produces
Limits of this example
- A single year of decisions is a small sample.
- Expected outcomes recorded afterwards would be unreliable; the log must be written at the time.
- This is a scripted demonstration on fictional data. No model was called and no real organisation, person or result is shown.
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