Assumptions to reassess
- Reassess: 0 assumptions, EUR 0 exposed.
- Still holds: 0.
Executive Intelligence · Advanced Executive Intelligence
Strategic Assumption Monitor
Registers the assumptions behind plans and monitors each against verified data, flagging a broken assumption with the evidence.
Demonstration: Osterley Components GmbH (fictional) · Industrial manufacturing. Fictional data and a scripted answer.
The situation
- Organisation
- Osterley Components GmbH (fictional)
- Who is asking
- Chief strategy officer
- Industry
- Industrial manufacturing
- What happened
- The three-year plan rested on seven assumptions, and a year in, the strategy officer wants to know which are still true.
The question asked
Which assumptions behind our plan have drifted from what we now see, and what is the plan worth if they are wrong?
What it reads, and who can see the result
- Plan assumptions registerEach with its value at approval.
- Current observations feedWhat the indicators show now.
- Reads
- The assumptions and current indicator values.
- Does not read
- Detailed operating data.
- Permission
- Strategy office access.
- Who sees it
- The chief strategy officer and the board.
Try it
Review each flagged record: confirm it or dismiss it. The totals and the answer below follow your decisions.
| Assumption | At approval | Now | Plan value exposed (EUR) | Finding | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market growth per year | 4% | 4% | 0 | Matched | None needed |
| Price of the main alloy | 2,100 a tonne | 2,900 a tonne | 6,200,000 | Input price 38% above the assumption | |
| Customer retention | 93% | 93% | 0 | Matched | None needed |
| Share of output exported | 35% | 27% | 3,400,000 | Export share eight points below plan | |
| Skilled-hire time | 3 months | 7 months | 2,100,000 | Hiring takes more than twice as long | |
| New plant ready | Q2 next year | Q2 next year | 0 | Matched | None needed |
- Flagged
- 3 of 6 · EUR 11,700,000
- Reassess the plan
- 0 · EUR 0
- Still holds
- 0 · EUR 0
- Undecided
- 3 · EUR 11,700,000
The answer
Simulated answer. Written for this fictional case, not produced by a live model. Only the figures in it are computed, from what you decided above.
3 of 6 plan assumptions have drifted, with EUR 11,700,000 of plan value exposed.
Each assumption is compared with what the indicators show now [S1][S2]. The alloy price is the largest drift; the export share and hiring time matter because several later assumptions depend on them.
You have chosen to reassess the plan on 0 (EUR 0 exposed) and to treat 0 as still holding (EUR 0); 3 are undecided. A plan is revised on evidence of drift, not on the calendar.
Relies on: S1 · Plan assumptions at approvalS2 · Current indicator values
Review and approval
The chief strategy officer decides. Approving takes the drifted assumptions to the board for a decision on revising the plan. It does not change the plan.
Not ready to approve. 3 flagged assumptions are still undecided. Confirm or dismiss each one first.
In the product this is a different person with the right permission. Here you play that role to see the rule.
What it produces
Limits of this example
- Exposure is an estimate of plan value tied to each assumption, not a forecast.
- A drift can be temporary; the monitor flags, the board judges.
- This is a scripted demonstration on fictional data. No model was called and no real organisation, person or result is shown.
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